Urban Meyer just dropped a Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction for 2026 that's about as clear as a Big 12 weather forecast—complicated, with a chance of chaos.

The legendary former coach sees serious potential in Lubbock, but there's a massive "if" attached. Star Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby's future is clouded by an ongoing investigation into his gambling history in Ohio and Indiana. If Sorsby faces a potential lifetime ban for betting on his own team while at Indiana, Texas Tech's dream of a College Football Playoff run could take a major hit before it even starts.

"You just invested $5 million. Texas Tech is no longer the Texas Tech of old; they have expectations of being in the playoffs. You lose that kid, and the backup's got a bad knee, your chance of going to the playoffs is dropping," Meyer said on the "Triple Option" podcast.

Here's where it gets interesting. Backup quarterback Will Hammond is working back from a torn ACL suffered last October. While his original recovery timeline was a full year, the Red Raiders might need him by Week 3—when Big 12 play opens at home against Houston on a Friday night. That's an aggressive return for any QB coming off knee surgery.

Meyer isn't counting Texas Tech out, though. The roster is loaded with talent, and the program has invested heavily in building a winner. He believes the Red Raiders could be favored in all five of their early-season games, especially if Hammond is healthy enough to suit up.

Texas Tech opens with FCS Abilene Christian at home in Week 1, then travels to Corvallis to face Oregon State in Week 2. The Red Raiders have three redshirt freshmen on the roster, but with Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis also in the mix, they won't be forced to throw an untested rookie into the fire.

For a program that's spent big to compete at the highest level, 2026 is shaping up to be a season where everything hinges on one knee—and one investigation.