Run beneath the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby 152 offers big payout potential
Recent times tell us the Kentucky Derby might just be the greatest betting race known to mankind. Payouts over the past five years have been quite handsome as the average $2 win wager on the Derby champ has yielded $55.88. The exotic investments have also yielded quite well as the $2 exacta average has returned $1048.36, the 50-cent trifecta $1889.60 and the $1 superfecta $66,191.30. Yes, those numbers have been inflated by the 2022 winner Rich Strike at a shocking 80 to 1, but the betting pools are always quite large and the twenty-horse field spreads the money which equals good value on many of the entrants. The 152nd running should produce more of the same as there is no dominant runner in this field. Littered with talent throughout, the 2026 edition defines WIDE open. The Run for the Roses carries a $5 million purse and a ticket to immortality. Let’s take a look at the entrants and provide a thought on each. The runners will be listed by post position with trainer, jockey and morning line. Scheduled for May 2, the Derby is carded as race 12 with an expected post time of 6:57 pm eastern.
Arkansas Derby win was super impressive and has landed this son of Into Mischief as the morning line favorite. Sam Davis Stakes win in February saw him close and get up just in time. Rail draw is not always good but may not be a huge factor considering his running style. A nice colt but we look elsewhere.
Two for two this year and closed nicely to win the Wood Memorial in his last start. Inside post position may be a challenge for this son of Yaupon. Doesn’t make our list of prime-time players.
Won the American Pharoah Stakes at two but is winless at three. Finished second in Robert Lewis Stakes and was fourth in Santa Anita Derby but turned in a bullet work at Churchill on April 26. Looked freakishly good but likely not a factor in this one.
Broke poorly in Arkansas Derby and finished seventh. Was third in Rebel Stakes in only other start at three. Six of seven career starts have been in graded Stakes company. Those odds on a Bob Baffert horse looks very enticing.
Four career starts all at Aqueduct with last two being a third in the Gotham Stakes and a second in the Wood Memorial. Displayed a nice closing kick in the Wood and closed from seventh to second in the stretch. If this son of Constitution gets it done here his connections will have the Right to Party.
Florida Derby champ has won four in a row including one at Churchill as a two-year-old. Son of Into Mischief has been in tough in last two starts and found a way to win. Definitely a player to consider here and two of last three Derby winners came through Florida Derby.
Unbeaten son of Maxifield crosses the Pacific as a pace stalker. All three wins have come in Japan. Forever Young was a very near miss for the Japanese a couple years ago, but this Bourbon doesn’t appear to be that strong.
So Happy and jockey Mike Smith win the Grade I, $500,000 Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 4, 2026 at Santa Anita Park, Arcadia CA. © BENOIT PHOTO
Santa Anita Derby champ has big money Mike in the irons and has three wins in four career starts. Has never raced outside California, but this son of Runhappy has worked well. Experienced jock gives him a chance to hit the board.
One win in four lifetime starts but has run tough and hit the board in every start. Son of Essential Quality has never raced outside Florida. His name will garner some wagers and the Sunshine State path has produced of late, but we look elsewhere for the winner.
Japanese-bred colt has been a world traveler as he has raced in Japan and the Middle East. Punched his ticket to Churchill with a win in the UAE Derby in Dubai. Two wins and two seconds in six career starts but he does not appear to be Godzilla here.
Could this son of Bolt d’Oro be the wise guy horse? Won the Virginia Derby in his last start and is two for two lifetime at Churchill. Has tactical speed which is good if he gets the trip. Worth a look at a price.
Highly regarded son of Constitution won his first career start in January and then finished second in the Fountain of Youth and third in the Florida Derby. Trainer won it last year and is great at what he does, but we are not backing this Chief.
The Paddock at Churchill Downs will be filled with excitement on May 2
Southwest Stakes winner has two wins and four seconds in six career starts. Has displayed a big kick down the lane and this son of Tacitus gets our nod as the longshot winner of the Kentucky Derby. Taking a swing, but stranger things have happened on the first Saturday in May.
Impressive looking son of Into Mischief has two wins and a second in three lifetime starts. The runner-up finish was last out in Santa Anita Derby. Put in a monster work after arriving at Churchill. If you get that price on this horse it is a must play. Never discount Big Race Bob.
Speedway Stables’ Potente and jockey Juan Hernandez win the Grade II $200,000 San Felipe Stakes Saturday, March 7, 2026 at Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA, giving trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Juan Hernandez their second stakes wins on the day. Benoit Photo
Unbeaten in two career starts, this son of Candy Ride won the Louisiana Derby after a stretch duel at Fair Grounds. Top notch rider, but the lack of experience in a race like this might be a factor.