The buzz around the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason is undeniable. With the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, quarterback Fernando Mendoza is poised to usher in a new era for the Silver and Black. But before we crown him the Week 1 starter, remember: this is year one of a full-scale rebuild. That reality is reflected in FanDuel Sportsbook setting the Raiders' win total at just 5.5 games. Now that the NFL schedule is officially out, let's break down how the season might unfold—and whether the Raiders can beat the odds.
Kicking off the season at home against the Miami Dolphins feels like a golden opportunity. The Dolphins are in a full tear-down mode themselves, positioning for the No. 1 pick next spring. Las Vegas should capitalize on this early matchup and grab a win in front of the home crowd.
But then comes a trip to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Raider Nation always shows up in force, but the history is brutal—Las Vegas is 2-9 against the Chargers in LA and hasn't won there since 2020. With the Bolts expected to contend this season, reversing that trend will be a tall order.
A mid-season clash with the New Orleans Saints offers a more balanced fight. FanDuel lists the Saints at +290 to win the NFC South, second only to the Buccaneers. Quarterback Tyler Shough showed flashes late in his rookie year, starting nine games with a 67.6% completion rate, nearly 2,400 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Both teams are rebuilding, but New Orleans might be a step ahead.
Then there's the wildcard: Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs' superstar suffered a torn ACL and LCL in early December, putting his availability for the start of this season in question. Even if he plays, a slow start is likely—and the final weeks of last season showed just how much Kansas City relies on their two-time MVP. That could open the door for an upset.
Speaking of upsets, Las Vegas pulled off one of the biggest shockers last year by beating the New England Patriots on the road. If the Raiders can channel that same grit and catch a few breaks, hitting the over on 5.5 wins isn't just a dream—it's a real possibility.