You know what does not show up in transfer portal rankings? Keeping really good players. In each of the past four seasons, multiple All-American campaigns have come from transfers who stayed for a second year with their new program and transformed into some of the best players in the country. It's dubbed the Year 2 transfer jump. This ongoing trend is partially why so many coaching staffs have invested top-shelf money into retaining top talent this spring, especially considering the widespread belief that the incoming batch of freshmen is not chock-full of max-contract talent.
There's an across-the-board sentiment that a good chunk of college basketball's best players next year will be returners, not transfers, internationals or freshmen.
Indiana, for example, owns the No. 3-rated transfer portal haul, but in this roster-building cycle, that only goes so far when other Big Ten contenders like Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Maryland, USC, Illinois and Michigan State have been able to retain their top players, while the Hoosiers are starting from scratch. IU will be improved, but it is not entering the Big Ten race in the upper echelon of the league. It may have the No. 1 transfer portal haul in the Big Ten, but it doesn't have the most talented roster in the league because so many of its Big Ten foes kept their go-to players out of the transfer portal's infested waters.
Iowa State's forward Joshua Jefferson is the latest and best example of what's possible for transfers who aren't in a hurry to dip. Jefferson was a plug-and-play starter for the Cyclones after transferring in from Saint Mary's in the spring of 2024, but he elevated into an entirely new zip code in his second season in Ames in 2025-26. Jefferson was a CBS Sports Second Team, All-American after creating 28.9 points per game, according to Synergy. That was a 37% jump in offensive production from his first season at Iowa State. Jefferson ironed out almost all the warts in his game, draining a career-high 38 treys and posting a higher assist rate (27.8) than any other frontcourt player in America. Duke's National Player of the Year, Cameron Boozer, was the only player rated higher than Jefferson in KenPom's National Player of the Year model.
Some team-by-team models project a 20% jump in production for transfers who stick around for a second season, and the proof of concept stretches far beyond just Jefferson. UConn made the National Championship game on the back of big man Tarris Reed Jr., who transformed into a beast in his second season in Storrs. Texas Tech's JT Toppin was awesome in Year 1 under Grant McCasland and a two-way terror in Year 2. A crushing knee injury was the only thing that could stop Toppin, who was hurtling toward First Team, All-America honors. Missouri's Mark Mitchell and UCLA's Tyler Bilodeau are other notable examples of second-year surges.
In 2022-23, it was All-American selections like Penn State's Jalen Pickett and Marquette's Tyler Kolek, who really sparked the intrigue.
In 2023-24, it was All-Americans like UConn's Tristen Newton, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr., Creighton's Baylor Scheierman and Alabama's Mark Sears.
In 2024-25, it was All-Americans such as Florida's Walter Clayton Jr., St. John's RJ Luis Jr. and Houston's LJ Cryer.
In 2025-26, it was All-Americans, i.e., Jefferson and Toppin, who carried the torch with Reed, Bilodeau and Mitchell right alongside as proof.
So, who is next to hop on the jetpack joyride that patience and development can elicit for Year 2 transfers?
The scoop: Very few teams got a better return on investment from the portal than Nebraska. Fred Hoiberg made a wager that Sandfort had way more in the tank than he got to show at Iowa, and he was right on the money. Only two players — Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic and Texas Tech's Donovan Atwell — made more treys than Sandfort (129). The sweet-shooting sniper who seemingly never gets tired fit into Nebraska's gorgeous scheme like a glove. Keeping Sandfort out of the portal was massive for the Huskers' outlook in 2026-27.
Area to improve: Sandfort can unequivocally build off his First Team, All-Big Ten season, but it might not be on offense. You cannot ask for anything else from Sandfort on that end. He moves without the basketball extremely well. He has a strap. He doesn't turn it over. He has terrific footwork on drives to get to his unblockable fadeaway jumper. He shot over 70% at the rim on 100 attempts. He made great decisions all year, posting a 2.9-to-1 assist-to-turnover rate. But with another offseason to work on his body, Sandfort can be an even better defender. Nebraska's no-middle defense requires plenty of scrambling and rotating, so if Sandfort can move laterally a little better, he can be even more of a nuisance on that end. Nebraska will need it after losing its two best defenders (Berke Buyuktuncel transferred to Vanderbilt and Sam Hoiberg graduated).
The scoop: AJ Dybantsa was a generational talent and Richie Saunders was the soul of the club, but Wright was a pivotal pillar of a BYU offense that rated 12th in offensive efficiency. The sophomore averaged 18.1 points, 4.6 assists and 3.5 rebounds while draining 41% of his 139 triples. Wright had a really, really good offensive season for the Cougars.
Despite a flirtation with Kentucky and other suitors in the portal, Wright opted to return to Provo for a second year. It's equivalent to BYU landing a top-10 transfer.
But now, what's he going to do with the new opportunity? This is Wright's team, for better or worse, and there's no doubt he will enter as a real contender for the Bob Cousy Award, handed to the nation's best point guard.
Area to improve: Wright is an outstanding three-level scorer and sharp distributor, but there needs to be some level of care on the defensive end, especially if he's going to be the leader of this team. He was one of the least impactful defenders in the Big 12 last season, by almost every metric. The eye test wasn't great either. If BYU goes as he goes, Wright has to understand the responsibility of that burden and show more pride and attention to detail defensively. With his speed and agility, Wright has the physical tools to be an on-ball defensive pest.
Wright is uber talented. He's a wizard in pick-and-rolls and a flat-out headache to defend. His counting stats will be ridiculous in this scheme, especially with the shooting BYU has added via the portal in Kentucky transfer Collin Chandler and Syracuse transfer Tyler Betsey. But finding a way to raise the level of everyone else in the building on both ends will be essential for BYU to thrive with a brand new roster that features five-star freshman Bruce Branch III as Wright's new co-pilot.
The scoop: Much to some's chagrin, Cadeau showed he is really good at basketball. He gave Michigan an edge. The former embattled UNC point guard took all the digs (some deserved, others not so much) and bottled it up into a snarl that's hard to procure organically. Cadeau plays with spite, in all the best ways, while humming along as one of the top playmakers in the sport. Cadeau's growth as a 3-point shooter was highlighted often, but his passing chops can't be overstated. Cadeau isn't just a good passer; he's a ludicrous floor general. He has so many different pitches in his arsenal to get the ball where it needs to go at just the right time. Cadeau was the Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four, and he's a big reason why Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara all became the best versions of themselves at Michigan last year.
Cadeau would have been arguably the best point guard in the 2026 transfer class. Instead, Michigan re-signed him for a second season under Dusty May's tutelage.
Area to improve: There's more meat on the bone here for Cadeau offensively, and Michigan might need it to reach its full potential without potentially three first-round picks. Cadeau shot just 47% at the rim, and the timing of his gathers on his drives seemed to be a little off, which put him in some tough positions. Cadeau can get into the paint whenever, thanks to his tight handle, bowling-ball strength and shimmy-shake shiftiness, but refining his floater and cleaning up his gathers would go a long way to help him reach the peak of his powers offensively.