The Indiana Pacers are entering one of the most pivotal weekends of their offseason, with the NBA Draft lottery set to determine the fate of a bold trade deadline move. On Sunday afternoon in Chicago, the ping-pong balls will decide whether the Pacers keep their first-round pick or send it to the Los Angeles Clippers.

Back in February, Indiana made a splash by trading for center Ivica Zubac and forward Kobe Brown. Zubac, who nearly earned All-NBA honors in 2024-25, has been a target for the Pacers for some time. But acquiring a player of his caliber came at a steep price. The Pacers parted ways with Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, an unprotected 2029 first-round pick, and a second-round selection. The trade also included a conditional 2026 first-round pick—a detail that makes Sunday's lottery so critical.

Here's where it gets interesting: that conditional pick is protected so that it only conveys to the Clippers if it lands between picks five and nine. If it falls anywhere from one to four, or ten to thirty, the Pacers keep it. However, since Indiana finished the season with the league's second-worst record, their pick can only drop as low as sixth overall. That means the ten-to-thirty range is no longer an option, leaving the team in a high-stakes scenario.

The lottery determines the first four selections in the NBA Draft through a random drawing of ping-pong balls. For the Pacers to retain their pick, they need luck on their side. If the lottery favors other teams, Indiana will lose their pick to the Clippers. "The pick protection, it was very unique, obviously," said Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan. "We were trying to protect our upside at the top of the draft mostly."

Since 2019, the NBA has operated under its current lottery odds, which give teams with the worst records the best chances at a top pick. For the Pacers, it's essentially a coin-flip scenario—a dramatic moment that could shape their roster for years to come. Whether they keep the pick or not, the outcome will set the tone for their offseason plans.