If Alex Ovechkin returns, what will his future with the Capitals look like? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

We still don’t yet know whether Washington Capitals star winger Alexander Ovechkin will return to the NHL for the 2026-27 season.

The 40-year-old Russian has not announced yet if he’s going to come back for what would be his 22nd NHL season, but he did say last week he was “pretty sure” he hadn’t played his final NHL game. So, for argument’s sake, we’re going to write the rest of this column believing Ovechkin will be back.

With that said, let’s look at what the future probably looks like for Ovechkin.

For starters, we shouldn’t be surprised to see Ovechkin sign a one-year contract extension. The idea of signing a multi-year extension would lock Ovechkin into the foreseeable future, and he may prefer the flexibility of a one-year contract that allows him to revisit his feelings about playing at this time next year.

MORE: Alex Ovechkin sends clear message on future as Capitals await decision

Now, as for the financial amount we should be projecting Ovechkin to make on his next contract, you have to bear in mind that he led the Capitals in goals (32) and points (64) this past season. That means he’ll have some leverage when he goes to Washington GM Chris Patrick to negotiate a new contract. Ovechkin’s current salary of $9.5-million is not likely to be the amount he signs for on a one-year deal.

Indeed, given that Chicago Blackhawks winger Tyler Bertuzzi and Carolina Hurricanes forward Seth Jarvis both had the same number of goals Ovechkin had this season, it’s fair to compare what Ovechkin could be making to what Bertuzzi and Jarvis were making this year. Bertuzzi earned $5.5-million, while Jarvis earned $7.42-million this season. So, let’s split the difference between these two players and say a fair salary for Ovechkin would be approximately $6.4 million next year. That sounds fair.

That amount would give respect to Ovechkin, while also freeing up enough cap space to spend on improving a Capitals roster that wasn’t playoff-worthy this year. The Caps are projected to have $36.5 million in cap space without an Ovechkin extension, so they can clearly afford to give Ovechkin a $6.5 million-per-year contract and still be a major player in trades and/or free agency.

The Capitals don’t have any meaningful UFAs this summer other than Ovechkin, and the two RFAs of note they have are forward Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre. Youngsters Ryan Leonard and Cole Hutson are signed at least through next year, so there’s no pressing interest to retain the Caps’ young core with new contract extensions.

MORE: Capitals Fans Gave Alex Ovechkin A Wonderful Send Off, Even If It's Not His Final NHL Season

That brings us back to Ovechkin’s future. If he wants to break the bank one more time, that wouldn’t send the best message for a player who could help improve the quality of talent around him if he gave the Capitals a team-friendly cap hit the way Boston Bruins icon Patrice Bergeron did at the end of his Hockey-Hall-of-Fame career.

Indeed, in his final NHL season, Bergeron was paid $2.5 million per season – a cut of more than half his $6.875 million salary from the prior season. Meanwhile, in his final season as a member of the Ottawa Senators, star winger Daniel Alfredsson earned $5.5 million, although he had to leave Ottawa for the Detroit Red Wings to get it.

All in all, it will be intriguing to see what type of hometown discount Ovechkin gives to the Capitals, if he gives Washington a hometown discount at all. Nobody is asking Ovechkin to play for the league minimum, but the more money Ovechkin leaves on the table, the stronger the Caps could be next season.

But if Ovechkin wants anywhere close to what he’s currently making, the Caps may once again not be a playoff team next year. All teams eventually have to have difficult financial conversations with their icons, and it’s now Washington’s turn to have that discussion with Ovechkin.

The Capitals will want a bounce-back season in 2026-27. And the choice Ovechkin makes on his next salary will help dictate what Washington can do in the standings.

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