Atletico Madrid are heading back to London with everything on the line—a Champions League final berth at stake. After a thrilling 1-1 draw in the first leg, Tuesday night’s winner-take-all clash at the Emirates Stadium will determine who books a ticket to Budapest for the May 30 final against either Bayern Munich or defending champions Paris Saint-Germain.

Coming off arguably their best win of the season against Valencia, Diego Simeone’s side carries serious momentum into this decisive showdown. That second-half performance at the Metropolitano—where Marcos Llorente’s long-range strike forced a Ben White handball for a penalty, calmly converted by Julian Alvarez—had Atletico fans believing they should have taken a one- or two-goal lead to north London. Antoine Griezmann and Ademola Lookman both spurned golden chances in the final 20 minutes before an exhausted Alvarez was subbed off with ankle discomfort.

But here’s where it gets interesting: in three of Atletico’s last four cup ties across the Champions League and Copa del Rey, they’ve won the first leg by multiple goals before losing the second leg—just barely staying alive. That pattern, combined with their confidence-boosting win over Valencia, should have the Rojiblancos feeling optimistic about their chances at the Arsenal Stadium.

For Arsenal, the narrative after leaving Madrid was simple: how would Mikel Arteta’s squad handle the pressure of competing on two fronts? They answered emphatically on Saturday, dominating Fulham 3-0 at home to shift the pressure back onto Manchester City in the Premier League title race. But injury concerns loom large for Tuesday’s match. Captain Martin Odegaard is doubtful after picking up a muscle injury midway through the second half of the first leg, while Kai Havertz is also recovering from a similar issue. Their absence would be a significant blow to Arsenal’s creative spark.

For Atletico, the key will be maintaining the sharpness they showed from the opening whistle last week—before an errant Julian Alvarez header led to a chain reaction that gifted Viktor Gyokeres a penalty just before halftime. If they can avoid those costly mistakes and convert their chances, Simeone’s warriors have every reason to believe they’ll be dancing in Budapest next month.