The stakes are higher than ever as UFC 328 descends upon the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, this Saturday, May 9, 2026. In a highly anticipated main event, UFC Middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev puts his title on the line for the first time against bitter rival Sean Strickland—a matchup that promises fireworks from the opening bell.

At MMAmania.com, we’ve got a weekly tradition called "Weekend Lock," where we pick one bet that feels like a sure thing. This week, we’re turning our attention to the "Prelims" undercard, where the action heats up with a compelling clash between two very different fighters. Mateusz Rebecki, known for his relentless pressure and exciting style, takes on Grant Dawson, one of the most effective—and admittedly, one of the more methodical—grapplers in the Lightweight division. Adding to the intrigue, this is another "teammate vs. teammate" showdown from American Top Team.

So, here’s my lock for UFC 328: I’m going with Grant Dawson’s moneyline at -166.

This is a classic "styles make fights" scenario, and the numbers lean heavily in Dawson’s favor. Rebecki thrives in chaos, charging forward with violent intent, but Dawson’s entire game is built on eliminating chaos. He clinches, wrestles, controls, and systematically drains his opponents over three rounds. It’s a blueprint that has worked time and again.

Here’s the key stat: the only times Dawson has lost inside the Octagon have been by quick, one-punch knockouts. That’s it. If opponents don’t catch him early, he typically drowns them with pace and grappling. And while Rebecki is aggressive and dangerous, he hasn’t shown that kind of lights-out power against elite competition. His only stoppage came against Loik Radzhabov, who is no longer with the promotion.

If this turns into a wrestling-heavy grind—and all signs point that way—Dawson should control the fight from start to finish. It’s a smart, steady pick for your betting card.

Now, we want to hear from you. What’s your most confident lock for UFC 328? Drop your picks in the comments below, and let’s see who comes out on top. And if you’re looking to gear up for fight night, check out our latest collection of fight-ready apparel—because every great lock starts with the right mindset.