Thursday's MLB slate is packed with six early games, and while the options seemed uninspiring at first glance, one matchup quickly caught our eye. When you dig into the numbers, the Kansas City Royals look like a strong play against Cleveland Guardians pitcher Slade Cecconi, who might be pitching for his roster spot.

Cecconi has been in a freefall. After a promising rookie season where he went 7-7 with a 4.30 ERA, the 26-year-old right-hander has struggled mightily in 2025. Through seven starts, he's 1-4 with a bloated 6.56 ERA. If you had bet $100 on Cleveland to win each of his outings, you'd be down $485—one of the worst returns in baseball. The Guardians finally won one of his starts last Saturday, but Cecconi still allowed five runs and 10 hits over just 5 1/3 innings, needing a bullpen bailout.

The numbers get worse. Cecconi has surrendered at least four earned runs in three straight starts and in five of seven overall. His 26 earned runs allowed are among the most in the majors, and he's given up eight home runs in just 35 2/3 innings. Since his MLB debut last May, his 32 homers allowed rank near the top of the league. That's a dangerous trend heading into hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium.

Meanwhile, the AL Central is wide open. The defending champion Guardians (+220 to repeat) got a huge break when Detroit's Tarik Skubal went down for up to three months with elbow surgery. The Tigers have crumbled since, and no team in the division has a winning record. Every club is within 2.5 games of first place—parity at its finest.

Cleveland has built its success on pitching, defense, and a mediocre lineup hitting just .230. Their rotation posts a 3.95 ERA, but Cecconi is dragging those numbers down. The Royals, with the home crowd behind them in a series finale, have a prime opportunity to tee off.

For fans looking to bet on MLB, this is a massive fade spot on Cecconi. The Royals are the clear play here.