If you're reading this, chances are you're ready to move on from Bo Naylor. But if you're still holding out hope, welcome to the club of the few, the proud, and the painfully patient.
As of May 6th, the Cleveland Guardians' catcher is sporting a brutal 6 wRC+ with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Among all MLB players with at least 80 plate appearances this season, only Naylor and Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes have been worse at the plate. Here's the twist: both players boast expected weighted on-base averages around .300, while their actual numbers sit at a dismal .180-.190. Hayes has a BABIP of .123; Naylor's is just .155. For context, a .300 wOBA would translate to roughly a 90 wRC+, which is more than acceptable for a catcher—especially one who brings strong defense to the table.
So, is Bo simply unlucky? Pretty much. He's posting the lowest swinging-strike rate of his career, isn't chasing pitches outside the zone more than usual, and has career highs in zone-contact rate, overall contact rate, and barrel rate. His batted-ball profile—groundballs, fly balls, and line drives—looks solid too. Hate to break it to you, but Bo Naylor might be having one of the unluckiest starts to a season we've ever seen.
The real frustration? Guardians pitchers seem to struggle when he's behind the plate. With Naylor catching, the team's ERA sits around 4.00; with Austin Hedges, it drops to 3.34. How much of that is on Bo? Hard to say. He's average in blocking and pop time, ranks in the 72nd percentile for framing, but has struggled to throw out basestealers—though Hedges hasn't been much better there. That likely points to the pitchers and their hold mechanics. Overall, the numbers still paint Bo as an average defender.
Of course, as luck would have it, the Guardians have two catchers tearing it up in Triple-A Columbus. Kody Huff is posting a 140 wRC+ with a 1.000+ OPS, while backup options are making their case for a call-up. For a team built on pitching and defense, patience with a young catcher might be wearing thin—but the underlying numbers suggest Bo's breakout is closer than it appears.
