After an impressive west coast swing capped by a series win over the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves return home to face one of baseball's hottest teams—the Chicago Cubs. For the Braves to keep their momentum rolling, they'll need a bounce-back performance from starter Grant Holmes, who has been battling through a rough patch.
The Cubs come into this series riding incredible momentum, having posted two separate 10-game win streaks and a remarkable 15-game home winning streak this season. Chicago has also been dominant against quality competition, posting an 11-5 record against teams above .500. For context, the Braves have played just seven such games, going 4-3. While early-season splits can be misleading, the Cubs have struggled to just a .500 record away from Wrigley Field—a potential opening Atlanta can exploit.
Grant Holmes takes the mound today looking to turn things around. Despite the Braves winning four of his last five starts, Holmes has struggled with a 5.13 ERA and 5.36 FIP over that stretch. He's surrendered five home runs and walked 12 batters in just 26.1 innings. The silver lining? Holmes continues to generate groundballs at an elite rate, tallying 41 grounders during that span. That skill could be crucial against a Cubs lineup that thrives on power.
History offers little comfort for Holmes: only two Cubs have faced him before. Alex Bregman is hitless in two at-bats, but Michael Conforto has owned him with a .600 average and 1.550 OPS in five plate appearances.
On the other side, Cubs starter Colin Rea has fared slightly better over his last five outings, posting a 4.39 ERA with a 3.72 FIP. He's struck out 25 batters while walking nine and allowing three home runs. But Rea has a notable weakness: he ranks in the bottom 43rd percentile in barrel percentage and the bottom 14th percentile in hard-hit rate. That's music to the ears of a Braves lineup that leads MLB in barrels and ranks third in batted ball events.
Mike Yastrzemski, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley—each tied for the team lead in at-bats against Rea—will look to capitalize on that vulnerability. If Atlanta can make solid contact early, they have a legitimate chance to do some damage against a Cubs team that's been nearly unbeatable at home but far more vulnerable on the road.