It's May 12th, and we've got a fascinating matchup between two teams still finding their footing after early-season managerial changes. The old baseball saying goes that every team wins a third of its games, loses a third, and it's that middle third that separates contenders from pretenders. On paper, tonight's game at Fenway Park looks like it might fall into that losing third for the Red Sox.

Boston is sending Jovani Moran to open before Brayan Bello takes over on the mound. They'll be without both Roman Anthony and Willson Contreras in the lineup — though Contreras avoided the IL after taking a pitch to the hand on Sunday, which is a small win. Mickey Gasper is batting second, and they're facing Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, who's been dominant with a 3.12 ERA and looks like one of the best starters in the National League this season.

But here's the thing about baseball: it rarely follows the script. The Red Sox were in almost this exact situation last Tuesday in Detroit. Same opener, same missing Anthony, same plan for Bello to follow. They were facing the Tigers' second-best starter, Framber Valdez. And what happened? Boston rolled to a 10-3 victory that made everyone forget the pregame concerns.

So the question tonight is simple: can Bello and the Red Sox pull off another surprise? If Bello delivers a strong outing after the opener, it could go a long way toward earning back some trust in his bid to stay in the rotation. With first pitch set for 6:45 PM at Fenway Park, we're about to find out if this team has that middle-third magic working again.