Looking for some MLB action this Thursday, May 7? With 10 games on the schedule, there's no shortage of opportunities to make smart bets—especially if you're hunting for home run props. SportsLine MLB expert Adam Thompson has crunched the numbers and identified his top home run plays for the day.
Thompson, a seasoned analyst who first joined SportsLine in 2016, returned in 2026 after leading betting coverage for the Gambling.com Group. Known for his data-driven approach, he specializes in the NFL, MLB, and NBA, and has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing, and golf. Over the past two seasons alone, he's racked up more than 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA.
One name Thompson is high on? Willson Contreras. The Red Sox catcher launched his eighth homer of the season on Tuesday against the Tigers, taking tough lefty Framber Valdez deep. Now he faces a Tampa Bay Rays team that's starting Griffin Jax, who is likely limited to just two innings before handing things over to the bullpen. And that bullpen? Only four teams in baseball have allowed more home runs than Tampa's relief corps.
Contreras has history on his side here, too. In two career at-bats against Jax, he's gone yard both times. Add in his hot bat—he's hitting .308 over the last week—and a light wind expected to blow out at Fenway Park, and the stars are aligning. At nearly 5-to-1 odds, this is a prop worth a serious look.
Another catcher making noise is Shea Langeliers of the Athletics. Despite a standout season, the veteran backstop isn't getting the national attention he deserves. With 10 home runs and a .336 batting average, he's one of just seven players with an OPS over 1.000. Seven of those homers have come against right-handed pitching, and seven have come on the road—good news as the A's head to Philadelphia to face Phillies starter Andrew Painter, who has surrendered a home run in three straight starts and allowed 11 runs over that span.
Langeliers is also returning from paternity leave, and he's been red-hot at the plate, batting .469 over his last seven games. In his most recent outing on May 2 against the Guardians, he crushed two homers. Expect that momentum to carry over into Thursday's matchup.
Whether you're backing Contreras at Fenway or Langeliers in Philly, these home run props offer plenty of bang for your buck. Time to swing for the fences.