Thursday's condensed MLB slate features just six games, but that doesn't mean the action is light. For fans and bettors who love the drama of the long ball, home run props offer a thrilling way to engage with every pitch. SportsLine analyst Adam Thompson, who has shown a sharp eye for matchups with over 70 units of profit in MLB over the past two seasons, has identified his top home run picks for the day.

Thompson is zeroing in on a key matchup in the Mets vs. Diamondbacks game, while the Yankees will look to bounce back against Oakland in another contest ripe for power potential. His analysis combines current form, historical data, and situational factors to find value in the prop market.

One of his highlighted plays involves Royals slugger Salvador Perez. Facing White Sox left-hander Anthony Kay, Perez finds himself in a favorable spot. Kay has struggled against right-handed bats early this season, surrendering two homers, and has yet to pitch deep into a game. With the wind forecasted to be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium, Perez—a proven 30-homer threat despite a slow start—has the raw power to take advantage of a vulnerable White Sox pitcher and bullpen.

Thompson's most intriguing pick, however, might be Mets shortstop Bo Bichette. Sometimes, betting on a trend to reverse is where the value lies. Bichette is in an unusual power drought to start 2026, homerless through his first 12 games while batting just .222. For a player of his caliber, this slump is unlikely to last. History suggests that talented hitters like Bichette eventually break out, making this a potential high-reward spot as he looks to find his rhythm at the plate.