Thursday's MLB slate features 11 games, giving bettors plenty of options for home run prop bets. SportsLine MLB expert Adam Thompson has analyzed the odds and matchups to identify the best value plays for April 30. One standout pick: a sweet-swinging lefty who should benefit from favorable weather conditions.

Thompson, a SportsLine veteran from 2016-2019, rejoined the company in 2026 after serving as the primary betting analyst for Gambling.com Group. Known for his analytics-driven approach, he specializes in MLB, NFL, and NBA, and has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing, and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up more than 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA.

One intriguing play is Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer. It's been a rough start to 2026 for Springer, who's batting just .196 with only two home runs, while Toronto ranks 24th in scoring—a full run below last season's mark. However, history favors a turnaround: in 17 career at-bats against Twins starter Bailey Ober, Springer has three homers and a robust 1.294 OPS. Given his 32-home run performance last year, the odds are tempting enough to take a flyer on him.

At Citizens Bank Park, the wind is expected to blow left to right for the second game of a doubleheader. While that doesn't favor the San Francisco Giants' mostly right-handed sluggers, it could boost Philadelphia Phillies hitters. Kyle Schwarber, known for his all-or-nothing approach, is hitting under .200 against both lefties and righties, but his power is undeniable. He has nine homers this season compared to Bryce Harper's six, though both have hit the same amount over the last week (2) and last two weeks (3).

Here's where value comes in: Schwarber's home run odds are around +380, but Harper, who crushes right-handed pitching and holds his own against lefties, offers far better bang for your buck. With Harper's recent form and the wind at his back, this is a pick that combines analytics with smart betting strategy.