When it comes to breaking down the UFC 328 main event, few voices carry more weight than Dricus Du Plessis—a man who has shared the Octagon with both Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland. On May 9, Chimaev puts his middleweight title on the line against Strickland at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, and Du Plessis believes the first round will be the deciding factor.

Du Plessis, who dethroned Strickland via a controversial split decision at UFC 297 in 2024 before defending his title more decisively in their rematch at UFC 312 last year, knows Strickland's game inside and out. He also faced Chimaev at UFC 319 this past August, where Chimaev dominated him on the ground for five rounds to claim the title. Now, Du Plessis is offering a unique insider's perspective on how this clash of styles might unfold.

"I know Khamzat's going to get him down," Du Plessis told Fight Forecast. "I've taken Strickland down so many times, I know Khamzat's going to get him down. But to keep him there, that's going to be the big question."

While Chimaev is known for his relentless wrestling and suffocating top pressure, Du Plessis warns that Strickland is no easy mark on the mat. "Strickland's ability to get up, the technique he uses, the strength he has—he is a strong guy, a lot stronger than Khamzat, physically. I think he is going to surprise some people."

The key, according to Du Plessis, is Strickland's ability to escape early and often. "If Strickland gets up two or three times in that first round or the first two, it's not going to get any easier with the sweat and fatigue, trying to keep a guy down that gets up. Once Khamzat has to fight Strickland's fight, I just don't think he has a chance."

Du Plessis also questions Chimaev's striking, despite his undefeated record. "Khamzat hits hard, kick hard, but not scary hard. And he is kind of predictable—you can see the shots coming." Against a defensive specialist like Strickland, who is known for his high guard and elusive footwork, landing a clean shot will be no easy task.

The bottom line? "If Khamzat takes him down, holds him down that first round, and Strickland cannot get up, it's Khamzat's fight," Du Plessis said. "I think that first round is going to tell us how that fight is going to play out."

For fans and fighters alike, this analysis adds another layer of intrigue to what promises to be a high-stakes middleweight showdown. Whether you're backing the undefeated Chimaev or the gritty Strickland, one thing is clear: the opening five minutes could set the tone for the entire fight.