Matthew Stafford is no stranger to making history. After leading the NFL in touchdown passes for the first time in his illustrious career last season, the veteran quarterback is already being projected to do it again in 2026.
Stafford's 2025 campaign was nothing short of spectacular. He posted a career-best 46 touchdown passes, earning him MVP honors and cementing his place among the league's elite arms. What made the feat even more impressive was that it marked only the third time in his career he had surpassed 33 touchdown passes in a season.
The secret to Stafford's success? A deadly combination of weapons. With Davante Adams turning into a red-zone cheat code and Puka Nacua stretching defenses on the opposite side, Stafford found a rhythm near the goal line that defenses simply couldn't stop. Consistently hitting open receivers in the end zone became second nature.
ESPN analyst Mike Clay believes the magic will continue. In his latest season projections, Clay has Stafford leading the NFL in touchdown passes once again—though this time with a more modest total of 35 scores. That's still two more than Joe Burrow and five ahead of Dak Prescott, the only other quarterbacks projected to hit the 30-touchdown mark.
While leading the league with just 35 touchdowns might seem low in today's pass-happy NFL, history shows it's far from impossible. Dak Prescott topped the league with 36 in 2023, Lamar Jackson did it with 36 in 2019, and Russell Wilson led the pack with just 34 in 2017. Sometimes, efficiency beats volume.
Of course, Stafford's quest for a repeat touchdown crown comes down to two key factors: health and play-calling. He'll need to stay on the field for all 17 games, and head coach Sean McVay must continue trusting Stafford's arm in the red zone rather than leaning too heavily on running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
If the Rams can keep that aerial attack humming, Stafford might just make back-to-back touchdown titles look routine.