The Toronto Maple Leafs' late-season collapse isn't just an embarrassment for their own fans—it's a potential disaster for the Boston Bruins' future. Since late February, the Leafs have been one of the league's worst teams, managing only five wins in their last 22 games. This dramatic slide has major implications due to a crucial trade condition.

The Bruins are owed Toronto's first-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, but with a critical caveat: it's top-five protected. If the Leafs' dismal play lands them a pick in the top five after the draft lottery, they keep it. If it falls to sixth or seventh, it heads to Boston.

Just a month ago, the odds looked promising for the Bruins. However, Toronto's tailspin has intensified, featuring a current six-game losing streak where they've been outscored 32-17. This collapse has drastically shifted the probabilities.

Current projections now give the Maple Leafs a combined 58.2% chance (roughly 5-in-8) of landing a top-five pick and keeping it. Specifically, they have a 24.5% chance at the fifth pick, and smaller chances at the first or second. For the Bruins, the hope now rests on the 44% chance for the sixth pick or the 14.2% chance for the seventh.

It's a stark reminder of how quickly fortunes can change in the NHL, turning a promising asset for one team into a tense waiting game. For Bruins fans, the final lottery results will reveal whether Toronto's painful season delivers a silver lining to Boston.