The New England Patriots are set to defend their AFC title in the 2026 NFL season, but early betting lines suggest the road ahead could be rocky. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots are underdogs in three of their first four games, signaling potential trouble for a team that dominated away from home last season.

The season kicks off with a marquee Super Bowl rematch against the Seattle Seahawks, who open as 3.5-point favorites. While fans may recall the Patriots' lopsided victory in Santa Clara, Vegas isn't betting on a repeat performance. From there, the schedule doesn't let up: New England faces a trio of playoff-tested AFC teams, with three of their first four games on the road.

A bright spot comes in Week 2, where the Patriots are favored by 4.5 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium. But the momentum could quickly fade. The Patriots enter Week 3 as 1.5-point underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars, followed by a trip to Orchard Park where the Buffalo Bills are three-point favorites, eager to avenge last season's upset.

This challenging start creates a scenario where the Patriots could match their entire loss total from last season by October 4. While they're heavy favorites at home against the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets, a Week 7 road matchup against the Chicago Bears has them as 1.5-point underdogs. Later in the season, DraftKings also lists New England as underdogs against the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs.

On the flip side, the Patriots are favored to win all eight games at Gillette Stadium, but only two road matchups—against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins—are in their favor. This split helps explain why DraftKings set New England's win total at 9.5, with seven AFC teams boasting equal or higher projections. For the defending AFC champions, avoiding a Super Bowl hangover will be critical to staying in the playoff hunt.