Dominick Cruz isn't buying the narrative that Khamzat Chimaev's path to victory is a sure thing. The former UFC bantamweight champion believes Sean Strickland has the tools to crack the Chimaev code when they clash at UFC 328.

Set for May 9 in Newark, N.J., the middleweight title fight pits undefeated champion Chimaev (15-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC) against former champ Strickland (30-7 MMA, 17-7 UFC). While Chimaev steamrolled Dricus Du Plessis on the ground to claim the belt, Cruz sees a different story unfolding this time.

"Unless Khamzat improved a ton, against Dricus he fought exactly how he needed to keep him down," Cruz told MMA Junkie. "It'll be similar with Sean, but Sean's no easy hold. He's incredibly seasoned at getting up from his back—it's part of his DNA. I had a similar game, and I know how hard that makes it for wrestlers. Strickland has that same mentality. DDP wasn't making the best choices from his back, but Strickland is more polished there."

Cruz highlighted Chimaev's strategy of prioritizing positional control over submissions in the Du Plessis fight. "Sometimes reaching for that submission gives the opponent an opening to escape. Khamzat just wore Dricus down and fought smart. But Strickland brings a different kind of resistance."

Despite Strickland entering as a heavy underdog, Cruz is picking the American for the upset. "I'll go with Strickland. Why not? It's not as lopsided as people think. His striking style is built to frustrate wrestlers trying to take him down. If anyone can challenge Khamzat, it's this guy. Let's go American."

As for Strickland's recent comments about pulling a gun on Chimaev if attacked by his team, Cruz shrugged it off as pre-fight theater. "He hasn't been arrested, has he? He says a lot of things."