It’s been a long time coming, but Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are finally locking horns in a direct rivalry.
Rory McIlroy has been pretty occupied by LIV Golf and Bryson DeChambeau over the last few seasons, but with the Saudi-backed league falling apart at the seams, and with McIlroy having won back-to-back Masters, he’s transcended to a higher plane.
The Masters was a turning point in the battle for top spot in the sport between McIlroy and Scheffler. If Scheffler had beaten McIlroy to the Green Jacket, he’d have tied him in major wins and won three Masters to McIlroy’s one. There would be no debate as to who’s better.
But with McIlroy claiming his sixth major, which he adds to his career grand slam, it’s now a real debate as to whether Scheffler can catch the Northern Irishman. Dan Rapaport gave his take, picking between the world number one and two.
McIlroy has won two more majors, but Rapaport thinks Scheffler, who is seven years younger, will win more majors in his career.
Speaking on Dan on Golf, he explained why, “I feel like people are trending with Rory right now. I am going with Scottie.
“There was all this freak out where he had three tournaments where he did not finish in the top 10. He finished in the top 25 in all of them by the way, he has been one shot away in each of the last two and he has been so far behind after 36 holes.
“He is back, he is totally back. He finished one shot back at the Masters, he tied for the lowest score at the RBC Heritage. I feel like Scottie is going to win the US Open. So if he wins another major and it’s 6-5, he is seven years younger. I think Scottie has got nine or 10 majors in him.”
Scheffler has two runner-up finishes in his last two events without bringing his A-game, a scary thought for the rest of the field. If he does win the US Open this year, as Rapaport suggests, then he’ll join McIlroy as a Career Grand Slam winner, and he’ll have all the momentum.
By his own exceptionally high standards, Scheffler has not been on his game at the start of 2026. But when you dive into the numbers, it’s clear this dip in form isn’t sustainable for the rest of the year.
It’s actually been the best year of Scheffler’s career for his short game. He’s never putted it better or played better around the greens according to Strokes Gained data. Plus, his play off the tee has been better than it was last year.
The one glaring weakness in Scheffler’s game in 2026 has been his superpower in recent years. He has not hit his irons this badly since 2021.
The four-time major winner has gained just 0.61 strokes on approach so far this year, down from 1.45 last year and 1.59 in 2024. And incredibly, he actually lost strokes to the field on approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
This is not something that is likely to continue, so when Scheffler does eventually find his irons again, he should return to his usual dominance.
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