The Washington Commanders are facing a steep climb in 2026, with one of the toughest strength-of-schedules in the NFL, according to analytics expert Warren Sharp. As the league gears up for the upcoming season—rookie minicamps are underway, OTAs are just two weeks out, and the full schedule drops in less than ten days—Sharp's early projections place the Commanders with the 25th easiest schedule (or seventh hardest) out of all 32 teams.

This marks a significant shift from 2025, when Washington's schedule ranked near the middle of the pack in difficulty. With player movement largely settled, Sharp's analysis combines opponent strength with offseason roster changes to forecast a 7.5-win season for the Commanders. For context, the five easiest schedules belong to the Lions, Saints, Bengals, Browns, and Jets, while the five hardest are the Rams, Cowboys, Panthers, Dolphins, and Cardinals.

But here's the thing: predicting win totals before the full schedule is released is a bit like roulette. The order of games matters immensely. A back-to-back stretch hosting division rivals like the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, followed by a cross-country trip to face the San Francisco 49ers, is far tougher than a run against the Atlanta Falcons at home and the Tennessee Titans in Nashville. Not to mention, the international series games haven't been finalized yet.

So, while the Commanders' path looks challenging on paper, the real test will come when the actual schedule drops. Until then, take these projections with a grain of salt—and get ready for what promises to be a thrilling season.