College basketball forces you to keep your head on a swivel with the barrage of moves in free agency, but outside of a few last-second stragglers, the portal closed up shop on Tuesday at 11:59 p.m., and now one question lingers: Who is going to be good?
For many programs, retaining stars has been the best way to build a contender this spring because of the opportunity cost. This 2026 portal haul is a little down compared to last year, especially if top free agents like Santa Clara's Allen Graves or Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic stay in the 2026 NBA Draft. The 2026 freshman class is also down compared to the 2025 crop that took over college basketball by storm.
On paper, lots of the best players in the country next year will be returners, not transfers or freshmen.
With that in mind, let's dive into winners and losers from the spring free agency period. For this exercise, we chose to focus primarily on the rosters that look close to set on paper.
You could make a strong argument that teams like Kansas and Kentucky are major losers at this point in the cycle, but there are still some avenues for that to flip in the coming weeks, especially with No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes' looming decision. Louisville is another one where the jury is still out. Despite owning the top-rated transfer portal haul after landing Kansas big man Flory Bidunga, Oregon point guard Jackson Shelstad, Iowa stretch 4 Alvaro Folgueiras and Arkansas wing Karter Knox, it's still a bit too early to fairly judge the Cardinals' outlook until the depth pieces come into play. The Cardinals desperately need a thumper and an organizer. Same deal with a team like Tennessee, which has added some real-deal talent but is still pursuing some moves that could change the outlook dramatically.
There was only one senior who stayed at one school for all four years in the entire SEC last year (Mississippi State's Shawn Jones).
Florida will have two four-year seniors next year after the enormous news that Tommy Haugh will eschew the NBA Draft and run it back with Alex Condon. The Haugh-Condon big-to-big passing has terrorized opponents for years, and the Gators get another year of it. If Rueben Chinyelu returns to Gainesville for his senior season instead of staying in the NBA Draft, Florida's terrifying frontcourt will be ready to rock and roll yet again.
That gives Todd Golden's outfit one of the highest floors in the country with a legitimate chance to be the preseason No. 1 team in the nation. Especially parlayed with the news that point guard Boogie Fland, sniper Urban Klavzar, slasher Isaiah Brown and intriguing depth pieces like CJ Ingram, AJ Brown and Alex Lloyd will all return.
Oh, and the Gators could add old friend Denzel Aberdeen back in the mix to start at the 2-guard spot if he gets a waiver for an extra year of eligibility.
Florida's rebounding will be elite. Florida's two-way rim dominance will be outstanding. The guard play should tick up with Fland reaping the rewards of the patented Year 2 transfer jump.
Top bench options: G Urban Klavzar, G Isaiah Brown, G CJ Ingram, G AJ Brown, G Alex Lloyd
Retention? Illinois checked that box off by retaining five key rotation players from last year's Final Four club in David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic, Andrej Stojakovic and Jake Davis.
High school recruiting? Illinois checked that box off by landing a deep freshman class, headlined by do-it-all guard Quentin Coleman and jumbo handler Lucas Morillo.
Transfer portal? Illinois checked that box, too, with a ceiling-raising addition like Providence's Stefan Vaaks, who has the positional size, shooting and playmaking that Brad Underwood craves.
Illinois also didn't lose a major difference-maker from its rotation, and dispelled the notion that Underwood can't retain top talent.
You book your tickets to the Final Four in late March, but Final Four rosters are built in April and May. Illinois' A+ offseason vaults the Illini into the elite tier nationally. Its starting lineup has loads of size, shooting and five different players who can go for 20 points on any given night. The rebounding and paint protection will be massive strengths, and the role identification shouldn't be too much of a hassle with all these familiar faces back and talented guards walking into an easy-to-define job description.
Top bench options: G Jake Davis, C Zvonimir Ivisic, G Lucas Morillo, G Ethan Brown, F Zavier Zens
There are haves and there are have-nots, and Wake Forest is the latter these days. Wake Forest lost its best player (Juke Harris) and its second-best player (Myles Colvin) to the portal. Oh, and its best recruit (Quentin Coleman) was poached by an Illinois program that could sell a Final Four and Keaton Wagler.
So now, Steve Forbes has to replace the entire rotation at the worst possible time because the prices for free agents in the transfer market are sky high, especially for a place like Wake Forest that is not near the top of the pecking order in ACC resources.
Merrimack transfer point guard Kevair Kennedy is a good evaluation. He will be productive for Wake Forest because almost every transfer is productive at Wake Forest. Monmouth's Justin Ray can shoot, and Kansas transfer Jamari McDowell is out to prove he's got more to his game than being a seldom-used, seventh man.