Big changes are coming to college basketball, and coaches are already feeling the pressure. With the NCAA Tournament expanding from 68 to 76 teams starting in 2026, the way programs build their nonconference schedules is set for a major shakeup. While TV deals and travel logistics will certainly shift, the most heated debates will likely center on who schedules whom—and why.

Let's be honest: this expansion is a bigger win for the high-major programs from power conferences than for the mid-major darlings that fight tooth and nail for 25-win seasons. That's the uncomfortable truth we have to start with. It's not the fairytale ending smaller schools were hoping for, but it's the reality of the new landscape.

For high-major coaches, the math changes fast. With more at-large berths available, the incentive to schedule tough nonconference opponents drops significantly. Expect to see more teams with 7-11 or 8-12 conference records sliding into the play-in round. Why risk a nonconference loss when conference play alone provides enough of a résumé test? The new playbook: pile up wins early, protect your record, and worry about strength of schedule later.

This isn't just speculation—it's already happening. Look at the 2026 season, where Miami (Ohio) became a cautionary tale. The RedHawks couldn't get high-major teams to agree to play them, resulting in a notoriously soft schedule. They nearly got left out of the tournament despite losing just one game all season. A second loss, and they're watching from home. That close call raises a critical question for the expanded field: will power conference coaches now be more willing to schedule teams like Miami, or will they double down on cupcake matchups?

With over 350 Division I programs, some coaches will inevitably choose the path of least resistance. Load up on opponents ranked near 300, cruise to a 13-0 nonconference record, and bank on the absence of losses outweighing a terrible strength of schedule. It's a strategy that prioritizes safety over substance—and with 76 teams in the dance, it might just work.