The New York Mets took a calculated risk with the back end of their starting rotation this season, and so far, it hasn't gone according to plan. Sean Manaea has been moved to the bullpen, Kodai Senga is dealing with yet another injury, and David Peterson has needed an opener just to stay afloat as his starting role hangs in the balance. But amid the struggles, one gamble has paid off in a big way: Clay Holmes.
Holmes has emerged as the Mets' most reliable starter, performing at a level that general manager David Stearns once envisioned when he traded for Freddy Peralta, calling him "one of the top starters in baseball." There's a touch of irony there, but the Mets are grateful Holmes has delivered when they needed him most.
The numbers speak volumes. According to MLB.com's Anthony DiComo, Holmes now boasts a 1.69 ERA, which ranks second in the National League, trailing only the Dodgers' Justin Wrobleski. That's elite company for a pitcher who wasn't even guaranteed a rotation spot coming into spring training.
"He's just on another level right now physically, mentally, the way he's making adjustments in games, the way he's using his pitches, trusting his defense when he needs to," Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. "Overall from Clay, solid."
Even opposing hitters have taken notice. After Holmes shut down a powerful Angels lineup, outfielder Jo Adell admitted, "Holmes has definitely been tough to start the year."
What makes Holmes so effective? He doesn't fit the modern mold of a strikeout-heavy starter. Instead, he relies on a sinker that has generated the third-best ground ball rate in baseball at 58.1 percent. Pitching to contact allows him to work deep into games when he's locked in. The Mets have had only three starts of seven innings this season, and Holmes owns two of them.
He gets outs, wins, and innings—a formidable combination that's often undervalued in today's game. Even more telling, hitters are batting just .167 against Holmes in the fifth inning, proving he's not just surviving late in games but thriving.