The Kansas City Chiefs are about to find out their 2026 schedule, and for the first time in three years, they won't be playing on Christmas Day. That's just one of the big predictions we're making ahead of the official release on Thursday, May 14.

The NFL faces a unique challenge when scheduling the Chiefs this season. On one hand, Kansas City remains one of the league's biggest draws—six of their games ranked among the top 100 broadcasts in 2025. On the other hand, they're coming off their worst record since 2012. And then there's the Patrick Mahomes factor. Coming off an ACL/LCL injury, the league will likely play it safe with primetime slots until they know the star quarterback is fully healthy. We've heard what Andy Reid and Brett Veach have said about Mahomes' status, and it's clear the NFL is taking notes.

Here are three predictions for the Chiefs' 2026 schedule:

1. No Christmas game this year
After three straight seasons of playing on the holiday, we're calling it: the Chiefs get a break. The NFL's VP of Broadcast Planning, Mike North, admitted the league got burned last year when Mahomes' injury turned the Christmas Day game against the Broncos into a dud that didn't even crack the top 100 telecasts. The league can't predict injuries, but they can avoid putting all their eggs in one basket. Expect Kansas City's primetime games to be packed into the middle of the season, with early-season slots reserved for afternoon kickoffs.

2. One big holiday game—then done with primetime
The Chiefs will likely land a Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving Day, or Black Friday primetime slot. But after that, don't expect many more night games on the schedule. The NFL will want to keep the door open for flexing afternoon games into primetime later in the season—but only if Mahomes is healthy and the team is rolling.

3. A schedule built for flexibility
Look for the Chiefs to have several late-season games scheduled for the 4:25 p.m. ET window. That gives the league the option to flex them into Sunday or Monday night if Kansas City is contending and Mahomes is back to his MVP form. It's a smart move for a team that's still a ratings powerhouse—but only when their franchise quarterback is on the field.

Mark your calendars for May 14. Until then, these predictions should give Chiefs fans plenty to talk about.