As the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres head into a pivotal stretch of their second-round series, both teams have traded blows—each securing two wins so far. But if you look past the scoreboard, the numbers tell a fascinating story about which team might have the upper hand moving forward.
At even strength, the Canadiens have outscored the Sabres by a convincing margin, 9-5. That’s a strong statement from a team that hasn’t gotten much production from its top line at 5-on-5. However, the underlying stats suggest Buffalo isn’t out of this fight by any stretch. In fact, the Sabres have actually generated more high-danger scoring chances (38-36) and hold a 52.8% share of expected goals—meaning they’re creating better opportunities, even if the Canadiens are outshooting them.
Montreal holds a 51.9% advantage in total shots (162-150) and a 55.7% edge in shots on net (78-62). That’s a significant volume difference, but it’s the Sabres who are making their shots count more. The Habs are playing a quantity game, while Buffalo is focused on quality.
Head coach Martin St-Louis didn’t hold back after his team’s Game 4 loss, pointing to special teams as the deciding factor. “It’s hard to believe we only got one goal on the powerplay,” St-Louis said. “I felt like we had a lot of chances. Our captain and goalie had a good game, Dobes kept us in too. Our start was not good.”
He’s not wrong. Montreal had seven powerplay opportunities but converted just once. Meanwhile, the Sabres scored twice on four man-advantages. That kind of disparity can swing a series, especially when both teams are evenly matched at even strength.
For the Canadiens to regain control, they’ll need to create more traffic in front of the Sabres’ netminder and capitalize on second-chance opportunities. The power play is generating quality looks—they just couldn’t finish on Tuesday. With the captain leading a dominant first-line performance, the Habs have the tools to turn things around. Now it’s about execution.
Whether you’re gearing up for Game 5 or just following the action, one thing is clear: this series is far from decided, and both teams have everything to play for.