When the ABS challenge system debuted this season, Red Sox fans had every reason to be optimistic. With Craig Breslow's "pitching and defense team" philosophy in full swing, the thought was that Boston would leverage every new tool to claw their way back into playoff contention. But so far, challenges have been anything but a Red Sox specialty.
Whether it's manager Alex Cora's decision to sidestep this new layer of gamesmanship or simply a roster lacking players comfortable tapping their helmets, the numbers don't lie. Through May 12th, Boston has called for just 28 batter challenges — the second-lowest total in all of baseball, tied with the Miami Marlins and just ahead of the San Diego Padres' 26.
Meanwhile, teams like the Minnesota Twins (56), Los Angeles Angels (49), Baltimore Orioles (48), and Cleveland Guardians (48) are leading the charge in hitter challenges. But here's the twist: high volume doesn't always mean high success. The most effective challenge teams — the Athletics, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, and Houston Astros — each win between 56% and 60% of their hitter challenges. And among the high-volume challengers, only the Guardians sit above .500 on the season.
Boston's hitters have won 46% of their challenges — the same rate as the Yankees, who have challenged 46 times. That puts both teams tied for 14th in challenge win percentage. But context matters: 19 teams have won at least 45% of their challenges, and 21 teams have hit 44%. So the Sox are essentially average in success rate, despite being near the bottom in attempts.
The real story lies in the individual batters.
Ceddanne Rafaela leads Boston in helmet taps, for better or worse. As one of the bright spots in the offense, he's challenged 7 times — but won just 2. That 28.6% success rate puts him in the company of Steven Kwan, Willy Adames, and Jonathan Aranda. Only Gunnar Henderson, with a single win in his challenge attempts, has fared worse among players with at least 7 tries.
If you look at Rafaela's feel for the strike zone, it's all over the map. Two overturned calls (blue circles) sit alongside five confirmed strikes (black circles). Even then, there's been some tough luck — particularly on two corner pitches in the lower-left quadrant that could have gone either way.
For a team built on pitching and defense, the ABS challenge system represents an untapped opportunity. Whether the Red Sox choose to embrace it or continue to let it slide could make all the difference as the season heats up.