The Championship play-offs are here, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough, and Hull City are all just three games away from joining Coventry City and Ipswich Town in next season's Premier League. With the semi-finals kicking off on Friday, the race for a place in England's top flight—and the financial windfall of over £100 million—is about to reach its thrilling conclusion.
In the semi-final matchups, Millwall faces Hull City over two legs, while Southampton takes on Middlesbrough. The winners will meet at Wembley Stadium for the ultimate prize: promotion to the Premier League. But as fans gear up for the drama, one question looms large: can statistics help us predict which team will come out on top?
BBC Sport's "Ask Me Anything" team has crunched the numbers, diving into the trends and patterns of Championship play-offs since the league rebranded in 2004. The results are revealing. Over the past 21 play-off campaigns, the team finishing third in the regular season has won promotion more often than any other spot—nine times, to be exact. That makes Millwall, who clinched third place, the historical favorite.
However, recent history tells a slightly different story. In the last six Championship play-off finals, every winner has finished either third or fourth, with fourth-placed teams dominating four of those victories. That trend points strongly toward Southampton, who secured fourth place, as a team to watch. If you're looking for a modern-day edge, the Saints might just be your best bet.
What about the teams finishing lower down the table? The most recent fifth-placed club to win promotion was Aston Villa back in 2018-19, while you'd have to go all the way back to 2009-10 to find a sixth-placed team—Blackpool—claiming the prize. That means Hull City and Middlesbrough, who finished fifth and sixth respectively, face an uphill battle based on historical odds.
But there's another stat that could swing the pendulum. Since 2004, the team with the best attacking record in the regular season has gone on to win the play-offs nearly 50% of the time—10 out of 21 campaigns. That attacking firepower favors Southampton once again, though recent seasons have seen some surprises. So, while Millwall has history on its side, Southampton's combination of recent trends and offensive strength makes them a compelling pick.
As the play-offs get underway, the numbers offer a fascinating lens through which to view the action. Whether you're a die-hard fan or just love the drama of knockout football, one thing is certain: the road to Wembley is packed with potential, and only time will tell if stats can truly pick the winner.