Picking the winner of the Grand National can feel like finding a needle in a haystack. With 34 horses thundering over the iconic Aintree fences, it's one of the most unpredictable spectacles in sport. But what if the data from past winners could give you a crucial edge? Let's dive into the stats to see if they can point us toward the 2026 champion.
First, let's talk odds. Since the year 2000, winners have come in at all prices. While the shortest-priced winner this century was the legendary Tiger Roll at 4-1 in 2019, the race is famous for its shock results, like Mon Mome's 100-1 triumph in 2009. The average winning price sits just under 24-1, proving that longshots always have a serious chance. However, in the last decade, the trend has shifted slightly, with five of the last ten winners starting at 11-1 or shorter. Favorites have a solid record, winning six times since 2000, including I Am Maximus in 2024, and frequently landing in the top five.
When it comes to the weight a horse carries, the data paints a broad picture. Winners in the last 25 years have carried anywhere from 10st 3lb to 11st 9lb. Recent history, however, offers a sharper focus: nine of the last eleven winners shouldered between 10st 5lb and 11st 8lb. The average winning weight clusters around 10st 12lb-10st 13lb, with 11st 6lb being the single most successful weight. This could be a key factor for narrowing down the field, especially for a top-weight like I Am Maximus, who faces the immense challenge of becoming the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to win carrying 12 stone.
