By the numbers: Fewer Derby horses are coming back for the Preakness

3 min read
By the numbers: Fewer Derby horses are coming back for the Preakness

By the numbers: Fewer Derby horses are coming back for the Preakness

The Kentucky Derby-Preakness pipeline has thinned sharply in recent years, and Golden Tempo is the latest example of that shift.

By the numbers: Fewer Derby horses are coming back for the Preakness

The Kentucky Derby-Preakness pipeline has thinned sharply in recent years, and Golden Tempo is the latest example of that shift.

The Kentucky Derby winner skipping the Preakness Stakes has become a recurring storyline in horse racing, and this year is no exception. Golden Tempo's decision to pass on the second jewel of the Triple Crown has sparked debate across the sport, but the numbers reveal a much larger trend: fewer horses are running both races than ever before.

This marks the fifth time in eight years that a Derby winner has opted out of the Preakness. The list includes Country House (2019), Mandaloun (2021), Rich Strike (2022), and Sovereignty (2025). The last Triple Crown champion, Justify, galloped to glory in 2018, and the drought since then has only intensified the conversation around the demanding schedule.

Trainers like Chad Brown have voiced concerns, telling the Associated Press that horses "benefit from more time in between races." Fellow trainer Brad Cox echoed that sentiment, suggesting that even moving the Preakness back a week might not be enough for top three-year-olds recovering from the Derby's grueling 1 1/4 miles. Golden Tempo's trainer, Cherie DeVaux, specifically cited the horse's "health, happiness, and long-term future" as reasons for the skip.

But it's not just the winners who are staying away. A USA TODAY analysis of Kentucky Derby and Preakness data paints a stark picture. Between 1970 and 2018, an average of 50.9 percent of the Preakness field had also run in the Derby. Since 2019, that number has plummeted to just 29.6 percent—a drop of more than 21 percentage points.

This year's Preakness, scheduled for May 16, is expected to feature only 21.4 percent of horses that raced at Churchill Downs on May 2. That would mark just the third time since 1970 that less than a quarter of the Preakness field had Derby experience. Before 2019, the only year below 25 percent was 2008, when Big Brown's dominant Derby win scared off potential challengers, leaving just 16.7 percent. The all-time low came in 2023, when only one of seven Preakness runners (14.3 percent) had also run in the Derby.

The traditional two-week turnaround between the Derby and Preakness has long been a challenge, but the trend suggests that owners and trainers are increasingly prioritizing their horses' long-term careers over the allure of a Triple Crown bid. For fans, this shift means fewer head-to-head rematches and a changing dynamic in the sport's most prestigious series.

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