When you're a team like the Los Angeles Lakers, every draft pick feels like a potential game-changer. So, can the 25th overall pick really help them upgrade over former No. 1 pick DeAndre Ayton? Let's break it down.

Ayton just wrapped up what can only be described as a rough season by his standards. His Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) dipped to -0.58, and he produced just 3.3 Earned Wins. For context, over his seven-year career, he's averaged about five Earned Wins per season. At 26 years old, he should be entering his prime, but instead, he's posted two of his worst campaigns in a row. That's a red flag for any front office.

But here's the million-dollar question: Is there any reason to believe a center picked late in the first round will do better? The short answer is: not right away. Historically, only about 10% of centers selected in the late first round outperform a struggling Ayton in their rookie year. Even more sobering? A quarter of those players never reach Ayton's level, even in his worst season.

Now for the silver lining: about three-quarters of centers drafted between picks 20 and 30 eventually surpass Ayton at his floor. The catch? There's a long, winding road between draft night and that peak performance—and plenty can go wrong along the way.

For the Lakers, this pick is a gamble. It's a bet on development, patience, and the hope that a late-first-round gem can one day outshine a former top pick. In the world of basketball, that's the kind of long shot that keeps the draft exciting—and keeps fans dreaming.