When the NFL releases its full schedule in a few weeks, all eyes will be on the Denver Broncos and the opponents they'll face. At first glance, their home slate looks like a minefield of playoff contenders: the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Jacksonville Jaguars—all visiting Mile High. That's a tough draw, no doubt.

But the road schedule tells a different story. The Broncos will travel to face the New England Patriots, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Carolina Panthers. That lineup feels more manageable, and as any fan knows, having strong teams come to your house is always preferable to heading into their hostile territory.

So, just how tough is Denver's schedule really? According to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Broncos actually have the 11th easiest schedule in the NFL heading into the 2026 season. That might sound surprising, but his ranking is based on expected win totals for each team—not last year's records.

Sharp argues that using previous season win-loss records to measure strength of schedule is "lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient." And he's got the numbers to back it up. NFL teams change dramatically from year to year—roster moves, coaching changes, player development—and with only a 17-game sample size, luck plays a huge role. Think fumble recoveries or tipped passes swinging games.

From 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team's actual strength of schedule could be explained by opponents' prior-year records. That number dropped to just 3.9% in more recent seasons. In contrast, predicted win totals have proven to be a more accurate gauge.

So while the Broncos' home slate might look like a gauntlet on paper, the reality is that the NFL is unpredictable. Last year's playoff team could be this year's rebuild project. For Denver fans, that means there's plenty of reason for optimism—and a reminder that the game is played on the field, not in the preseason projections.