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The Atlanta Braves go for the road sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball, closing out a key NL matchup.
Here are my favorite Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks, with a focus on Ronald Acuña Jr., Grant Holmes, and Bryce Harper.
Ronald Acuna’s surface-level statistics (.247.347/.370) may not show it, but he’s performing at an elite level. Placing above the 90th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, and bat speed, the production should come along shortly.
With hits in nine of his last 10 games, Acuna is starting to find his form. A matchup against Andrew Painter and his reverse splits isn’t a turn-off.
Painter has faced 22 right-handed batters this season, and eight of them have collected hits (.421 AVG). Sure, that’s a small sample size, but the rookie hasn’t proven capable of getting out Big League-caliber righties, let alone one of the very best.
Painter pitches to contact (4.9% walk rate), and Acuna has mostly limited his strikeouts (18.9% K rate). Making contact here should result in an opportunity to accumulate total bases.
The plus-money is appealing here, especially for a pitcher who has a massive 14.1% swinging strike rate in his career. I’ll bite.
Grant Holmes’ K rate has cratered from 25% to 19.3% despite his swinging strike rate actually jumping a half tick (from 13% to 13.5%). With a whiff rate in the 81st percentile, the Ks should come eventually.
The veteran’s go-to pitch, his slider, has generated a .196 xBA and 53.3% whiff rate. That’ll play against a Phillies lineup that has struggled against the pitch, posting -4.7 runs against average.
Philadelphia’s projected lineup has faced Holmes 16 times, and eight of those have resulted in strikeouts. A 50% K rate against the opposing lineup will certainly play, especially when plus money is offered on the Over.
After facing southpaws in each of the first two games of this series, the Phillies will be glad to face the right-handed Holmes on Sunday. They’ve struggled mightily against LHP (58 wRC+), but could break out a bit after plating a single run in the first 18 innings of the series.
Bryce Harper has hit the cover off the ball in April, slashing .333/.419/.685 with as many extra-base-hits (10) as strikeouts. He’s still going strong at age 33, posting a 94th percentile xwOBA and 96th percentile xSLG.
What makes this an appetizing matchup is that he’s demolished four-seamers (.811 xSLG) and sliders (1.170). Holmes throws those 78% of the time against lefties, so Harper will have a great opportunity to stay hot.
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