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The Arizona Diamondbacks struggle against the splitter, which should play into the hands of Toronto Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman this afternoon.
Read on to see why in my Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for today's game.
When Kevin Gausman’s splitter is dancing, he’s one of the most lethal pitchers in the majors, which makes his 5.5-strikeout total at plus-money an attractive price.
The Toronto Blue Jays ace has been racking up the Ks, averaging 7.75 strikeouts this season, which ranks in the 94th percentile in K%, while using the splitter as the put-away pitch, garnering a 44.2% whiff rate and a strikeout rate of 42.9%
The split-fastball has given this Arizona Diamondbacks lineup fits this season, with the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors, with a 42.4% whiff rate against the pitch.
Additionally, Gausman owns a .164 opponent batting average against this lineup.
The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the majors with a .294 OBP.
I’ll continue to bet on Gausman and take the Under on his hits prop set at 5.5, a total he’s stayed Under on in three of his four starts this season. Additionally, the Arizona lineup is just 12-for-73 against Gausman through his career, with a .447 OPS
Lastly, I’ll take Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to go Over 0.5 strikeouts tonight. He’s 0-for-2 with a pair of strikeouts against Gausman throughout his career.
I’ll make this a half-unit wager. Ryne Nelson has been hit hard this season, ranking in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate. This has resulted in four home runs allowed this year, all against his four-seamer.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushes the baseball and has a .417 average against the four-seamer, with a .500 slug rate against the pitch. He's 2-for-8 against Nelson, with one of those hits being a home run.
Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+155) | Arizona +1.5 (-185)
The Blue Jays have cashed the first five innings team total Under in six of their last seven games for +5.75 units and a 74% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks.
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