The Toronto Blue Jays are off to a rocky start, sitting at 16-20 and already nine games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East. For a team that entered the season as reigning AL champions, that's a tough pill to swallow. But before anyone hits the panic button, there's reason to believe this team can still turn things around—they've been hit hard by bad luck, and one player in particular is the poster child for that misfortune.

That player is right-handed reliever Jeff Hoffman, whom Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report recently named as the most likely trade chip on the Blue Jays' roster. On the surface, it's an easy argument to make: Hoffman has struggled with a 5.74 ERA over 17 games this season, and his 4.37 ERA in 71 appearances last year wasn't much better. Plus, the memory of the World Series-losing homer he allowed still stings for Toronto fans. With reliever Louis Varland stepping up as a capable closer, the idea of unloading Hoffman—and his $11 million salary for 2026 and 2027—might seem tempting.

But let's pump the brakes. Trading Hoffman would be a colossal mistake for a team still eyeing a World Series run. Here's why: finding elite relievers is incredibly difficult, and Hoffman's underlying numbers tell a much brighter story. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at a stellar 2.82, suggesting he's been far better than his ERA indicates. He's simply been unlucky with hits falling in, while his strikeout rate has actually climbed to a career-best 16.7 per nine innings. That's the kind of swing-and-miss stuff that wins games in October.

If the Blue Jays are serious about contending this year—and they should be—they need to have faith in Hoffman turning things around. He's a proven All-Star talent who's just in a rough patch, and dumping him now would be a move they'd regret the moment he finds his groove for another team. In a sport where bullpen arms are gold, Toronto would be wise to hold onto this one.