The Chicago Bears shocked the NFL world in 2025, defying expectations by capturing the NFC North title and making a run to the Divisional Round. But as the 2026 schedule drops, the doubters are already sharpening their knives.

Following Thursday night's schedule release, ESPN's Dan Graziano didn't hold back when asked if it was an overreaction to suggest the Bears might miss the playoffs. His answer? "Not an overreaction."

Graziano points to a brutal reality: Chicago faces the league's toughest schedule for 2026, based on opponents' 2025 win-loss records. History isn't kind to teams in this position—over the past decade, seven of 10 teams with the hardest schedule missed the playoffs entirely. The last to win a playoff game under these circumstances was the 2016 Atlanta Falcons.

The schedule gauntlet includes back-to-back matchups against both Super Bowl teams from last season, including a road trip to face the defending champion Seattle Seahawks. That's a tall order for any squad.

Still, the Bears aren't the same old Bears. The arrow is pointing up for the Johnson/Williams pairing, even if quarterback Caleb Williams finished 32nd in completion percentage among qualifying passers (58.1%) last season. His QBR of 58.2 ranked just 16th, yet he still led Chicago to its first division crown in seven years.

There's reason for optimism. The offense returns significant continuity, a rare luxury in today's NFL. And while pundits love to predict the wheels will fall off, the Bears proved last season they're not following the usual script.

Yes, the schedule is tough. Yes, history suggests caution. But betting against this Bears team? That might be the real overreaction.