Q: Gaze into your crystal ball and tell us if the Heat are better than 10th in the East two years from now. Do you think they’re top six? How high do they go? I think if they swing one more good trade or draft pick (they’ve done plenty of those in the last three seasons), they’re truly competing for top four. – Morgan, New Orleans.
A: Considering it is difficult enough to predict next season, let alone two years down the road, let’s start there. Clearly, Detroit, Boston, New York and Cleveland have shown staying power. Then you have to consider what Atlanta has done this season, and the fact they will receive a lottery pick because of their trade with New Orleans last June. From there, you have the growth curve of Toronto, as the Heat experienced this past week. And let’s not forget, Indiana is getting back Tyrese Haliburton next season, and will have a full season with Ivica Zubac. And it is clear Washington for the first time in years will be playing to win, having acquired Anthony Davis and Trae Young, plus with another lottery pick to add to their mix. If anything, the competition figures to be even tougher for the Heat, unless they luck into a quality lottery pick. At this stage, it is difficult to forecast a significant rise, based on how the Heat finished this season. As far as long range, remember that the Heat still owe Charlotte a first-round pick either in 2027 or 2028. So it’s not as if a rapid rebuild is necessarily in the forecast, either.
Q: If there’s anything to be learned this season, it’s that the Heat are more than a Giannis Antetokounmpo away from competing. They can keep reshuffling this deck if so desired. The Heat always seem to owe a couple picks, now they only owe one. – John, Ocala.
A: But being without the aforementioned pick listed above that is due to Charlotte, it means the inability, under the Stepien Rule (can’t be without successive first-round picks), of being able to trade their first-round picks before this year‘s draft, in 2027, 2028 or 2029, as of now. So there still are considerable limitations when it comes to draft equity to put into play. As for Giannis Antetokounmpo, if he can be added along with a quality first-round pick, it could be similar to the jump that Heat made in 2019, when they signed Jimmy Butler and drafted Tyler Herro. Whether that is good enough in today’s Eastern Conference, is another question, for many of the reasons listed in the answer above.
Q: This team needs to consider organically tanking. This has become rinse and repeat each year. They can achieve that with no contract extensions for Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins or Norman Powell. Play the kids, and try and find buyers for Nikola Jovic. See if Kel’el Ware improves next season and see if Tyler Herro can get over his injuries. – Rodney.
A: No issue here with such an approach. And agree that you don’t continue to put money into a roster that is stuck in the mud. But face it, this is the Heat, so it will be another offseason of Giannis Antetokounmpo speculation until that is settled. What the Heat can’t afford is to go too deep into that process in the offseason, at the cost of other options. In other words, this can’t become another summer of Damian Lillard.