The Arizona Diamondbacks are heading to Arlington for a three-game series against the Texas Rangers, and if you're a fan of tight matchups, this one has all the ingredients. Historically, these two teams couldn't be more evenly matched—the Rangers hold a slim 32-31 edge in regular-season meetings, and their all-time runs per game are nearly identical (4.5 for Texas, 4.6 for Arizona).

But last season told a different story. The Diamondbacks took four of six games from the Rangers, outscoring them 4.9 to 4.2 per game. However, Arizona also allowed more runs (4.8 per game) compared to Texas's stingier 3.7. That defensive gap might explain why projections for this season favor the Rangers. As of May 7, four major forecasting sites give Texas the edge, with win totals ranging from 81.0 to 86.4. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are tightly clustered between 79.4 and 80.3 wins.

Both teams enter this series ice-cold. Through May 8, the Rangers have lost five of seven games, while the Diamondbacks have dropped six of seven. Whoever loses this series might need a mental reset—fast.

Keep an eye on Ezequiel Duran, who's been heating up with a .976 OPS over the 14 days through May 6. But the Rangers have been shuffling their lineup: Justin Foscue took over at second base on May 7, pushing Duran to left field. Both players are barely 27 years old, though Duran is in his fifth MLB season.

On the mound, Michael Soroka has been a bright spot for Arizona. In his latest start against the Pirates, he allowed just one earned run over 6.1 innings, thanks in part to excellent defense. Among Diamondbacks starters, only Eduardo Rodriguez has a better ERA. For the Rangers, Nathan Eovaldi is on fire—he gave up just one earned run in eight innings against the Yankees. Only Jacob deGrom boasts a better ERA among Texas starters.

Then there's Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks' ace. Before a comebacker hit his shoulder on April 25, Gallen had a stellar 3.14 ERA over six starts. Since then, he's struggled—allowing 10 earned runs in just 9.2 innings across two starts. The big question: how long until he returns to his earlier form? This series might give us our first real clue.