Six weeks into the MLB season, rotations are solidifying and bullpens are finding their rhythm—but not every pitcher is living up to expectations. While some arms are struggling on the surface, their underlying numbers tell a much more optimistic story. Here are five MLB pitchers whose advanced metrics suggest a strong bounce-back is on the horizon.
Lance McCullers Jr. – Houston Astros
Through his first seven starts, McCullers Jr. owns a 7.41 ERA over 34 innings—but his xERA sits at just 4.53, a gap of nearly three runs. That’s a massive red flag for luck-driven inflation. His BABIP against (.310) is above average, meaning more balls are dropping for hits than expected. Combine that with an impossibly low 50.0% left-on-base percentage (LOB%), and it’s clear: runners are scoring at an unsustainable rate. The real skill is still there—he just needs some batted-ball fortune to turn around.
Miles Mikolas – Washington Nationals
In his 11th MLB season, Mikolas’s 7.44 ERA through 32.2 innings looks alarming. But dig into the advanced stats: his xERA is 4.82, and his home-run-adjusted xFIP is 6.14—both significantly better than his actual ERA. The culprit? A 56.1% strand rate, a full 16 points below the league average of 72.2%. That means baserunners are scoring at a historically unsustainable clip. His 15.1% strikeout rate and 44.2% hard-hit rate aren’t elite, but they’re not bad enough to justify a 7.44 ERA. Positive regression is nearly guaranteed.
Garrett Crochet – Chicago White Sox
After two seasons as a top-10% strikeout pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA, Crochet has stumbled to a 6.30 ERA and a 26.8% K-rate in 2026. But his xERA (4.85) and xFIP (5.23) both trail his actual ERA by more than a run. A sky-high .350 BABIP and a 61% strand rate confirm the bad luck. Crochet is one of the clearest positive-regression candidates in baseball—expect his ERA to settle in the mid-fours as the season progresses.
David Peterson – New York Mets
Peterson’s 6.29 ERA is inflated by a +1.54 gap from his xERA, driven largely by poor sequencing. Like others on this list, he’s dealing with a low 59% strand rate, meaning runners are scoring more often than they should. His underlying stuff remains solid, and as the metrics stabilize, so should his results. The Mets’ lefty is due for a strong second act.
Final Takeaway
For fantasy managers and fans alike, these pitchers are prime buy-low candidates. Their advanced metrics point to better days ahead—so don’t let a rough start fool you. In baseball, luck often evens out, and these arms are poised to benefit.