The San Francisco 49ers are heading into the 2026 season with high hopes of reclaiming the NFC West throne, but according to a new projection model from The Athletic, their roster might not be as stacked as fans would like. After a 12-5 campaign that saw them finish third in the division and lose in the Divisional Round to the eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, the 49ers have made significant moves this offseason to bolster their squad. However, Austin Mock's model, which calculates expected margin of victory (xMOV) against an average NFL roster, ranks San Francisco at No. 11 overall with a plus-2.5 xMOV—tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
It's a surprising placement for a team that's been a perennial contender, but the model points to a glaring weakness: the defensive line. Mock notes that despite liking stars like Nick Bosa and new addition Osa Odighizuwa, the unit is projected as bottom-five in the league. "The 49ers will need a big jump from Mykel Williams and solid play from Romello Height," he explains. Without that issue, San Francisco would easily crack the top 10. The silver lining? Kyle Shanahan's offense remains a powerhouse, capable of carrying a struggling defense for a second straight year.
On paper, the 49ers boast an elite offense led by quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey, and newly acquired wide receiver Mike Evans. But the defense, which faltered in 2025, could be the team's Achilles' heel again. While the front office added veteran cornerbacks and traded for defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, the unit lacks the dominance of past seasons. Meanwhile, the offense is aging and just a few key injuries away from unraveling.
A top-10 roster ranking would have been a nice vote of confidence, but given the current state of the team, it's not entirely realistic. For 49ers fans, the hope is that Shanahan's offensive brilliance and a few breakout performances on defense can prove the model wrong. After all, in the NFL, games aren't won on paper—they're won on the field.