The 2026 PGA Championship is set to make history as it heads to the iconic Aronimink Golf Club for only the second time ever. With a field of 156 players vying for the Wanamaker Trophy, narrowing down the contenders might seem straightforward—just eliminate the PGA professionals, past champions, and anyone who hasn't shown much form this year. But as recent majors have proven, golf is never that simple.

Look at the last few champions: Rory McIlroy stormed to his second straight Masters win last month, following Scottie Scheffler's dominant run at both The Open and the 2025 PGA Championship. Yet, even these superstars had to fend off unexpected challengers. A lucky bounce here, a missed putt there—and Russell Henley could have been wearing the green jacket. At Quail Hollow, Scheffler fought off Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, but the rest of the top five included names like Harris English, Davis Riley, and J.T. Poston. Not exactly household names, but proof that anything can happen on golf's biggest stage.

That's the beauty of the PGA Championship: it boasts the largest field of any major, and more players than ever believe they have a shot. History is written by the winners, but these tournaments are often just a few shots away from looking completely different. So, let's dive into six key trends that will help determine who will be holding the trophy come Sunday at Aronimink.

First up: world rankings. With LIV Golf players now earning OWGR points for top-10 finishes, the trend is evolving. But over the past decade, every PGA Championship winner—except Phil Mickelson in 2021 (ranked 115th)—has been inside the top 50 in the world. Five of those champions were top-10 players, including last year's world No. 1. That means we can safely eliminate anyone outside the top 50, including big names like Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and Wyndham Clark, who will need to climb the rankings to contend.