The 2026 PGA Championship is heating up as Round 3 gets underway Saturday morning at the historic Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. With "Moving Day" upon us, the leaderboard is packed with talent—and plenty of opportunities for surprises.
Defending champion Scottie Scheffler sits just two strokes back at 2-under, right in the thick of contention. But he's not alone. A tightly bunched group of eight players is either 3-under or 4-under, with Alex Smalley and Maverick McNealy sharing the lead at 4-under heading into the weekend. First tee times begin at 7:45 a.m. ET, with the final pairing teeing off at 2:40 p.m. ET.
Scheffler enters the weekend as the +350 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, but the odds board offers plenty of intriguing options. Cameron Young (+950), Ludvig Aberg (+1200), and McNealy (+1200) are among the top contenders looking to make a charge. Both Young and Aberg are also at 2-under, setting the stage for a thrilling battle on a course that demands precision and patience.
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Behind the scenes, SportsLine's proprietary golf model—built by DFS pro Mike McClure—has been running simulations of every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. And its track record is nothing short of remarkable. The model has correctly predicted 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight Masters win), last year's PGA Championship, and the Open Championship. Anyone following its picks has seen serious returns on betting sites.
Now, with the 2026 PGA Championship heading into the weekend, the model has simulated the rest of the tournament 10,000 more times—and the results are turning heads.
One of the biggest surprises? The model projects that co-leader Alex Smalley will struggle over the weekend and barely hang on to a top-10 finish. Despite firing a 67 on Thursday and a 69 on Friday, the 29-year-old has never won a PGA Tour event—let alone a major—and has just one top-10 finish in a solo event this season. The model suggests he's a player to avoid as the pressure mounts.
Head to SportsLine now for the full projected leaderboard and see which golfers are poised to make a run at the Wanamaker Trophy. With the course set for drama, this weekend promises to deliver unforgettable moments—and potentially big payouts for those who know where to look.