The NFL schedule release is almost here, and for fans already planning their season, the strength of schedule breakdown is the first big clue about which teams are set to thrive—and which ones might be in for a long year. Let's dive into the 2026 strength of schedule rankings for all 32 teams, and fair warning to Chicago Bears fans: the road ahead looks steep.
After a stunning 2025 campaign that saw the Bears win the NFC North with an 11-6 record, Chicago is suddenly facing the toughest schedule in the entire league. Their opponents' combined win percentage from last season sits at .550, the highest mark in the NFL. Only the Miami Dolphins come close at .542. That means the Bears and Dolphins are the only two teams with a strength of schedule above .540—a clear signal that repeating last year's success won't come easy.
Why is Chicago's slate so brutal? Two main factors are at play. First, strength of schedule is calculated based on opponents' records from the previous season, and every single team in the NFC North finished with a winning record in 2025. That's nearly unheard of—only the second time in the Super Bowl era that an entire division has gone above .500. For the Bears, that means four divisional games against tough, playoff-caliber opponents.
Second, and perhaps more concerning, is the "first-place schedule" curse. As NFC North champions, the Bears will face five first-place finishers this season instead of the usual four. Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule in 2021, the team stuck with the hardest first-place slate has regressed by an average of four wins per season. Last year, it was the Detroit Lions, who went from 15-2 in 2024 to 9-8 in 2025. History suggests Chicago could be in for a similar drop.
That extra first-place game changes everything. From 2002 to 2020, every team played the same balanced schedule—four games against first-place teams, four against second-place, and so on. But now, division winners face an extra top-tier opponent, making it much harder to repeat as champions. For Bears fans hoping for another NFC North title, the math isn't in their favor.
On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns might be catching a break. While the full rankings won't be official until Thursday night, early projections suggest a more manageable path for teams coming off weaker seasons. As always, the schedule giveth and the schedule taketh away—and this year, the Bears are on the wrong end of the deal.