It's the biggest question looming over the 2026 NFL Draft: what if the Las Vegas Raiders don't take Fernando Mendoza first overall? The Indiana quarterback, fresh off a Heisman Trophy win, is considered the consensus top prospect for a Raiders team with a clear need under center. However, the recent signing of veteran Kirk Cousins introduces a sliver of doubt, opening the door for a seismic shift at the top of the draft board.
Such a shocking pivot would send immediate shockwaves through the entire first round, forcing every team to scramble and reconsider their strategy. To explore this fascinating "what if" scenario, we ran a mock draft simulation to project how the dominoes might fall if the Raiders looked elsewhere with that coveted No. 1 pick.
The simulation kicked off with a stunner: the Raiders still selected Fernando Mendoza, keeping the top quarterback prospect in Sin City. This decision set the tone for a defensive-heavy start. The New York Jets, picking second, bolstered their pass rush with Texas Tech's dynamic edge rusher, David Bailey. The Arizona Cardinals followed suit, grabbing versatile Ohio State defender Arvell Reese at No. 3.
The intrigue continued as offensive playmakers began to come off the board. The New York Giants added a dynamic weapon in Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at pick five, while the Washington Commanders focused on the secondary, selecting ball-hawking Ohio State safety Caleb Downs at seven.
As the middle of the first round unfolded, several teams addressed critical needs in the trenches and secondary. The Cincinnati Bengals picked Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy at ten, and the Miami Dolphins doubled down on protecting their quarterback by selecting hometown offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa from "The U." The Dallas Cowboys, picking twelfth, added to their defensive front with Miami's relentless pass rusher, Rueben Bain Jr.
The later picks saw a run on talent from powerhouse college programs. The Los Angeles Rams traded up to secure Georgia tackle Monroe Freeling, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers added Auburn's disruptive Keldric Faulk, and the Jets grabbed another Hoosier, wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., with their second first-rounder. The simulation wrapped up with teams like the Vikings, Steelers, and Chargers adding key defensive pieces and offensive line help, showcasing the depth of talent available in this hypothetical 2026 class.
While this is just one simulated scenario, it highlights how a single decision at the top can reshape an entire draft, creating unexpected opportunities and altering team fortunes. It's a reminder that on draft night, anything can happen.