Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, MiamiElegy for a Super Bowl Participation Trophy(With apologies to Dickens)

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, 

it was the age of the prodigal Vrabel’s return, it was the age of his foolishness, or whatever THAT was. [1]

It was the epoch of belief in Drake, it was the epoch of incredulity at his Super Bowl faceplant.  

It was the season of a light at the end of an (albeit very short) tunnel, it was the season of darkness after watching their prized left tackle get smoked again [2]

it was the spring of hope after a Super Bowl run, it was the winter of despair after getting curb stomped once they got there.

They were going to be another dynasty, they were all going back to mediocrity—in short, that Super Bowl was like every one before Brady and Belichick. [3] [4]

This should be a happy time for Pats nation. Their time in the wilderness, compared to other post-Dynasty teams like the Bulls, was remarkably short. They appeared to have nailed two (perhaps THE two) most important decisions facing any team by drafting Drake Maye and hiring Mike Vrabel in little over a year after the somewhat ignominious exit of the last remnants of the B and B dynasty. They also managed to parlay an (admittedly) easy schedule and some very timely injury luck into another Super Bowl berth. For a team with young players at so many key positions, even when they got overwhelmed in Santa Clara, you would think that they might consider their glass more than half-full.

But, at least to this foreign (Eagles) Nation(al) posted in New England, there is more discontent than you might imagine. Even before the whole Vrabel-Russini nonsense became a national, cross-over story, there is a belief/recognition/concern that last year was a mirage; that Drake, their new lord and savior, might not have “it”. Between that, major issues on the O-line that got exposed by the Seahawks, and a schedule that is likely to be far-less forgiving than last year, the vibes are far worse than you might suspect. [5]

So what should they do with their draft pick? Since I’m not totally immersed in the Pats Pulpit/WEEI ecosystem, to be safe I field-tested my priors wrt their needs with my buddy Jake, one of the most clear-eyed Pats fans I know. A recap of our thread:

“What do they need? edge, o-line, safety,……um, did I mention edge and O-line?

….now that you mentioned it, do you think the Eagles will trade AJ Brown?” 

This exchange confirmed what I had observed watching the Pats and the occasional foray over to Pats Pulpit. While most of BGN has been focused on the (questionable) strength of the Pats’ receivers room for obvious reasons, the truth is that they have more pressing needs elsewhere. Edge is the biggest one. As for the O-line, well, you all saw the Super Bowl. Finally, safety looks very thin with the Kevin Byard reclamation project [6] being penciled in as a starter.

So what do they do with what’s left at the 31st pick? Before going over who is left on the board to choose from, I’d note two other things that influence my thinking and theirs

First, this F.O. appears to have moved on from Belichick’s “trade down until you get every third-round pick and then draft randos” approach that drove the localsnuts back in the day. Ergo I think it’s unlikely they go outside the box which is smart.

Second, I (and they I think) would very much want to trade for AJ Brown. Their strategy appears to be going for it without totally selling out like the Commanders did last offseason, so I am baking in the assumption that they will be bidding for Brown as June 1 approaches.

With all that in mind I took the following approach to considering options:

Cross off the players already selected 1-30 from Fran Duffy’s draft guide and Dane Brugler’s “The Beast”.  [7]

Compile a list of everyone listed 1-32 in either draft guide as a “BPA” list

Add to them everyone 33-40 from a position of focus for the Pats, i.e. fills a need at edge, o-line, or safety and appears to be a fair value, As I noted, I wouldn’t reach for anybody and am pricing in a better-than-average chance WR will include AJ after June 1.