The 2026 NBA playoffs are heating up, and Monday night delivers two pivotal Game 1 conference semifinal matchups that have fans and bettors alike buzzing. With the action tipping off at 8 p.m. ET, the New York Knicks enter as 7.5-point favorites against the Philadelphia 76ers, while later at 9:30 p.m. ET, the San Antonio Spurs are heavy 13.5-point favorites hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves. The totals for these contests are set at 212.5 and 217.5 points, respectively.
This is where the numbers get interesting. SportsLine's advanced projection model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has been on an absolute tear this postseason. With a scorching 25-9 record (74%) on top-rated spread picks this season, the model has generated well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players over the past eight-plus seasons. For those looking to capitalize, the model has identified three confident NBA best bets that, when combined into a parlay, could deliver a payout north of +600.
The model's strongest lean comes in the Knicks vs. 76ers matchup, favoring New York to cover the -7.5 spread. Philadelphia, the seventh seed in the East, has been a respectable 25-20 on the road this season, but their offense ranked just 14th in the regular season at 115.9 points per game, while their defense allowed 116.1 points (19th). Tyrese Maxey is projected to lead the Sixers with 25.6 points, and five Philadelphia players are forecast to score at least 13 points. However, the model sees the Knicks pulling away.
New York, which boasted the 10th-best scoring offense (116.5 points per game), is expected to be powered by Jalen Brunson, who is projected to drop 27.5 points. Five Knicks are forecast to score 11.8 points or more, and the model projects New York to win by 11 points in 60% of its simulations. That makes the Knicks covering the 7.5-point spread the clear play. With the Spurs also heavily favored against a Timberwolves team that may be without Anthony Edwards (knee, questionable), Monday's slate offers plenty of opportunity for those ready to make their move.