The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery odds are officially set after the league broke two ties on Monday. The Utah Jazz earned the tiebreaker over the Sacramento Kings for the No. 4 draft lottery position, while the New Orleans Pelicans earned the No. 7 spot after winning the tiebreaker over the Dallas Mavericks.
Notably, the Atlanta Hawks will have the better of the picks that belong to the Pelicans and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks will enter the draft lottery on May 10th in the No. 10 draft slot. Milwaukee's pick has a 13.9% chance of landing in the top four and a 3% chance of being the No. 1 overall pick.
Sacramento was firmly in the mix to finish with one of the four worst records in the NBA before closing the season by winning three of its last 10 games. During the same stretch, Utah lost nine of its last 10 games. In the penultimate game of the regular season, the Kings had a chance to clinch the No. 4 draft slot outright but beat the Golden State Warriors at home.
So, how far could the Kings fall on lottery night? It's possible that Sacramento's pick could be as late as No. 9. Sacramento has a 0.6% chance of picking No. 9 and an 8.5% chance of picking No. 8.
Still, when ties occur in the final NBA standings, the odds for that draft slot are split evenly between the teams. The Kings and Jazz both have a 45.2% chance of landing inside the top four and an 11.5% chance of being the No. 1 overall pick. Here's the breakdown:
Last year, Dallas won the tiebreaker over the Bulls to enter the draft lottery in the No. 11 slot. It might've seemed minuscule at the time, but that slight boost helped Dallas secure the No. 1 overall pick and the right to select Cooper Flagg. This time around, Dallas wasn't so lucky.
The Mavericks will have a 29% chance at a top-four pick and a 6.7% chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick for the second consecutive year after losing the tiebreaker to the Pelicans. Dallas doesn't control its own first-round pick until 2031 after this summer.
The NBA Draft Lottery will take place on May 10 in Chicago
Here is how the rest of the first round of the NBA Draft looks after the tiebreakers: