The Kentucky Derby has a knack for delivering heart-stopping finishes, and the 2026 edition promises more of the same drama. Over the past seven years, every Run for the Roses has been decided by less than two lengths—and none of those winners were the betting favorite. That trend could shake up your Derby predictions this Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs.
Arkansas Derby winner Renegade enters as the 4-1 morning-line favorite, but history suggests the winner might not be the most popular pick. His half-sibling Commandment sits at 6-1, alongside fellow Brad Cox trainee Further Ado. Meanwhile, jockey Junior Alvarado—who guided Sovereignty to victory last year—will ride Chief Wallabee, currently listed at 8-1 in the latest odds.
With the starting gate set to open at 6:57 p.m. ET, the question on every racing fan's mind is: who will cross the wire first? To help you find the answer, SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Gene Menez has crunched the numbers and revealed his top picks for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Menez isn't just any handicapper. A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, he spent nearly 14 years covering horse racing and other sports for the iconic magazine. His track record is impressive: in 2010, he correctly predicted Super Saver's Derby win. In 2015, he nailed the superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund, and Frosted) for a $1,268.20 payout on a $2 bet. Two years later, he hit a Pick 4 that paid nearly $6,900 on a $1 wager. And in 2024, he singled out 18-1 longshot Mystik Dan as a live contender. Last year alone, his exacta and trifecta picks delivered a $1,045 win for followers.
Now, Menez has analyzed the full 2026 Derby field and identified several surprise contenders that could shake up the board. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a casual fan looking for an edge, his insights offer a valuable roadmap for the biggest day in horse racing.
Ready to place your bets? Check out Menez's full picks and predictions, and don't forget to explore exclusive betting offers to maximize your Derby Day experience. From the roar of the crowd to the thunder of hooves, this year's Run for the Roses is shaping up to be one for the history books.