Fantasy football season is heating up, and with it comes the inevitable debate: who should you avoid in the early rounds? As we look ahead to 2026, it's time to sound the alarm on a few big names that might not live up to their draft-day price tags. Remember, calling a player a "bust" doesn't mean they aren't talented—it simply means their projected value doesn't match their likely production. Let's dive into three stars you might want to think twice about before locking in that early pick.
Patrick Mahomes: The Price of Greatness
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in NFL history. But in fantasy football, context is everything. With a revamped offensive scheme and a growing reliance on the run game in Kansas City, Mahomes' elite passing volume has taken a hit. He's still a top-tier real-life QB, but drafting him in the early rounds means passing on high-floor running backs and wide receivers who offer more consistent weekly upside. In a league where streaming quarterbacks is easier than ever, spending a premium pick on Mahomes could leave your roster thin at other positions.
A.J. Brown: Injury Risk and Target Competition
A.J. Brown is a physical specimen and a game-wrecker when healthy. But "when healthy" is the key phrase. Brown has a history of nagging injuries that can derail a fantasy season, and the Eagles' offense is now loaded with weapons like DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. With a run-first philosophy under Jalen Hurts, Brown's target share isn't as secure as it once was. If you're investing a second-round pick, you need a player who can deliver week in and week out—not one who might miss multiple games or see his role fluctuate.
Trey McBride: The Tight End Trap
This is the name that will raise eyebrows. Trey McBride was a fantasy superstar in 2025, leading all tight ends in production and earning first-round value. But fantasy football rewards what you'll do next season, not what you've already done. And in Arizona, the landscape has shifted dramatically. The Cardinals hired a new coaching staff, and they used the third overall pick on running back Jeremiyah Love, signaling a more run-heavy approach.
Last year, Arizona led the NFL with 649 pass attempts, much of that due to playing from behind in blowout losses. That's not a sustainable formula. When the Cardinals do throw, new head coach Mike LaFleur (a Sean McVay disciple) historically targets tight ends at a much lower rate than McBride's previous offensive coordinator. In Los Angeles, LaFleur's offenses funneled just 18% of targets to tight ends—compared to 27% under the old system. Even if McBride is talented enough to command more attention, the scheme change alone makes a repeat of his 2025 production highly unlikely.
The Bottom Line
Fantasy football championships are won by making smart, informed decisions in the early rounds. Patrick Mahomes, A.J. Brown, and Trey McBride are all exceptional players, but their current ADP suggests they're being drafted at their absolute ceiling. A savvy manager knows that avoiding these potential busts could be the difference between a playoff run and a season of regret. Stay disciplined, trust the numbers, and let someone else take the risk.